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SHORT-TERM VISITOR ARRIVALS

In trend terms, short-term visitor arrivals to Australia during October 2007 (468,700 movements) changed little compared with September 2007 (468,600 movements). Currently, short-term visitor arrivals are 0.6% higher than in October 2006.

SHORT-TERM VISITOR ARRIVALS

Short-term Visitor Arrivals, Major Source Countries - October 2007
	Trend	Seasonally Adjusted	Original	Sep 07 to Oct 07	Oct 06 to Oct 07
	'000	'000	'000	Trend % change	Trend % change
New Zealand	92.5	92.8	102.9	-1.1	2.4
United Kingdom	56.9	56.9	56.4	0.3	-4.9
Japan	48.5	48.0	46.5	0.7	-9.1
United States of America	39.2	40.4	36.4	1.1	3.3
China	30.5	29.5	25.4	0.9	11.6
Korea	20.8	20.5	19.8	-1.2	-11.1
Singapore	21.4	19.7	18.8	-1.4	-4.0
Germany	12.3	11.7	14.7	-1.1	1.1
Malaysia	11.6	11.1	11.2	-3.1	-10.5
Indonesia(a)	7.1	6.5	11.1	-2.2	1.2
(a) Break in trend series from December 2006 - see Explanatory Notes, paragraph 23.

SHORT-TERM RESIDENT DEPARTURES

In trend terms, short-term resident departures (467,300 movements) increased by 0.7% compared with September 2007 (464,100 movements). Short-term resident departures are currently 10.3% higher than in December 2006, when a trend break was introduced - see Explanatory Notes, paragraph 23.

SHORT-TERM RESIDENT DEPARTURES

Short-term Resident Departures, Major Destinations - October 2007
	Trend	Seasonally Adjusted	Original	Sep 07 to Oct 07	Oct 06 to Oct 07
	'000	'000	'000	Trend % change	Trend % change
New Zealand	77.4	77.8	69.3	0.2	4.9
United States of America	41.6	41.9	37.9	1.5	13.7
Thailand	31.0	29.5	35.1	-1.6	23.2
China	24.0	24.0	27.0	0.4	11.5
United Kingdom	37.1	36.4	26.9	1.0	9.3
Indonesia(a)	21.9	23.5	25.2	-0.7	51.2
Fiji	17.9	19.0	22.0	2.4	7.0
Singapore	19.5	19.8	18.8	0.5	15.5
Hong Kong	17.5	18.0	17.7	1.3	3.6
Malaysia	15.1	16.1	16.1	1.6	8.9
(a) Break in trend series from December 2006 - see Explanatory Notes, paragraph 23.

PERMANENT AND LONG-TERM MOVEMENTS

There were 10,840 permanent (settler) arrivals to Australia during October 2007, a decrease of 5.5% compared with October 2006 (11,470 movements). People born in the United Kingdom accounted for the largest proportion of settlers (19%), followed by people born in New Zealand (17%), India (10%) and China (8%).

There were 5,360 Australian residents departing permanently from Australia during October 2007, an increase of 7% compared with October 2006 (5,010 movements).

Statistics on overseas arrivals and departures relate to the number of movements of travellers rather than the number of travellers. Care should be taken when using long-term movements data as it is known that some individuals who travel multiple times in a year are counted each time they cross Australia's borders (see paragraph 5 of the Explanatory Notes). Long-term movements in this publication are not an appropriate source of migration statistics. For further information refer to Australian Demographic Statistics (cat. no. 3101.0) and Information Paper: Statistical Implications of Improved Methods for Estimating Net Overseas Migration, Australia, 2007 (cat. no. 3107.0.55.005).

SHORT-TERM TRAVEL - FIJI

Short-term visitor arrivals

Trend estimates provide the best method to analyse the underlying direction of the short-term visitor arrivals series for Fiji. The past ten year period, to October 2007, has seen the trend series increase from a low in May 1998 (1,700 movements) to a series high in September 2006 (2,600 movements). Over the past year the series has been in decline since the peak in September 2006. The series fell in June 2000, coinciding with a coup d'etat of the Fijian government in May 2000. Since then, while there have been monthly fluctuations, the series has increased to reach similar levels as seen before the May 2000 coup d'etat. Currently, the number of movements in October 2007 (2,100 movements) is lower than that recorded in October 2006 (2,500 movements).

The seasonally adjusted series allows for the analysis of irregular impacts on the series. The graph below shows that over the ten years to October 2007, two large variations are evident for short-term visitor arrivals to Australia from Fiji. The large fall in the series in July 2000 follows the May 2000 coup d'etat. Whereas the peak in September 2003 (2,900 movements) coincides with the Rugby World Cup being held in Australia.

FIJI, Short-term Visitor Arrivals

In the year ended October 2007, short-term visitor arrivals from Fiji stated visiting friends and relatives (34%) as the main reason for journey, followed by holiday (24%) and business (18%). In comparison the main reasons for journey for all short-term visitors to Australia were holiday (51%), visiting friends and relatives (21%) and business (12%). The median age of short-term visitors from Fiji was 41 years (39 years for all short-term visitor arrivals), and the median duration of stay was 11 days (10 days for all short-term visitor arrivals).

The mainland eastern sates of New South Wales (59%), Queensland (24%) and Victoria (13%) were the main states/territories of intended stay for short-term visitor arrivals from Fiji in the year ended October 2007. All other states and territories recorded 1% or less for the same period. Whereas the main destinations for all short-term visitor arrivals to Australia were New South Wales (39%), Queensland (28%), Victoria (18%) and Western Australia (10%).

Short-term resident departures

Over the past thirty years, since the current overseas arrivals and departures collection began, records show that Fiji has consistently been one of the top ten destinations for residents departing Australia. During the late 1970s and early 1980s, Fiji was in the top five destinations. By 2000 and the 2001 it had dropped to tenth place where as by 2004 to 2006 Fiji recovered to sixth most popular place for Australian residents travelling overseas.

Trend estimates provide the best method to analyse the underlying direction of the short-term resident departures series for Fiji. Over the ten year period to October 2007, trend estimates have shown a long period of continuous growth after recovering from the effects of the coup d'etat of the Fijian government in May 2000. The lowest number of movements of resident departures to Fiji occurred in October 1997 (6,500) whereas the highest number of movements was recorded in the current month of October 2007 (17,900). This represented a 176% increase on the number of resident departures to Fiji over the ten years to October 2007. Currently, the number of movements is 7% higher than in October 2006.

The large dip in the seasonally adjusted series, in the graph below, shows a fall in June 2000 which follows the coup d'etat of the Fijian government in May 2000. The smaller dip occurring between August 2006 and September 2007 includes another coup d'etat in December 2006 which may have contributed to the continuation of a downward trend during this period.

FIJI, Short-term Resident Departures

In the year ended October 2007, short-term resident departures to Fiji stated holiday (76%) as the main reason for journey, followed by visiting friends and relatives (13%) and business (4%). In comparison the main reasons for journey for all short-term residents departing Australia were holiday (49%), visiting friends and relatives (24%), business (14%) and conference/convention (4%). The median age of short-term resident departures to Fiji was 36 years (42 years for all short-term resident departures), and the median duration of stay was 9 days (15 days for all short-term resident departures).

STATISTICAL SIGNIFICANCE

The above presentation of movements in estimates does not take into account whether the change in movement is statistically significant. Care should be taken when interpreting the impact of numeric and/or percentage change. Please see the Standard Errors section of this issue for more detail.